There have been SEVEN occasions when a party has taken at least one Holyrood list seat with less than 6% of the national vote

One of the most active anti-Alba propagandists on social media was telling people yesterday that they shouldn’t even dream of voting for any party if it was below 6% in the opinion polls – the implication being that Alba would have no chance of winning any seats in that scenario. But is that really true? In a word, no. Since the Scottish Parliament was established, there have been no fewer than seven occasions when a party has won at least one list seat with less than 6% of the national list vote –

In 1999, the Greens won 3.6% of the vote and one list seat.

In 1999, the SSP won 2.0% of the vote and one list seat.

In 2003, the Scottish Senior Citizens Unity Party won 1.5% of the vote and one list seat.

In 2007, the Greens won 4.0% of the vote and two list seats.

In 2011, the Liberal Democrats won 5.2% of the vote and three list seats (and it would have been more if they hadn’t won constituency seats).

In 2011, the Greens won 4.4% of the vote and two list seats.

In 2016, the Liberal Democrats won 5.2% of the vote and one list seat (and it would have been more if they hadn’t won constituency seats).

But, you might wonder, were all of the above parties just very lucky? In one or two cases maybe, but for the most part no. Let’s now look at all of the examples of parties that won more than 1% of the national list vote without winning any seats. As you can see, not a single one had 3% of the vote or more.

In 1999, the Socialist Labour Party won 2.4% of the vote and no seats.

In 2003, the Pensioners Party won 1.5% of the vote and no seats.

In 2003, the Socialist Labour Party won 1.1% of the vote and no seats.

In 2007, the Scottish Senior Citizens Unity Party won 1.9% of the vote and no seats.

In 2007, Solidarity won 1.5% of the vote and no seats.

In 2007, the Scottish Christian Party won 1.3% of the vote and no seats.

In 2007, the BNP won 1.2% of the vote and no seats.

In 2011, the Scottish Senior Citizens Unity Party won 1.7% of the vote and no list seats.

In 2016, UKIP won 2.0% of the vote and no seats.

So with Alba at 3% in yesterday’s Survation poll, and with the majority of polls so far showing them on 3% or higher, it would be a very brave (ie. misleading) call to say that they have no chance whatever of seats.

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I mentioned my interview on IndyLive Radio the other day – you can now listen to it at your leisure HERE, or via the embedded player below. Our unionist friends love to sneer at things like IndyLive Radio, but I listened to their interview with John Curtice from the same show, and it was incredibly in-depth. You’d have learnt more from that than from three months of listening to Good Morning Scotland.

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Scottish Independence Podcasts – IndyLive Radio · James Kelly – “Scot Goes Pop” – Holyrood 6 May 2021

I’ve had lots more constituency profiles in The National in recent days – Angus South, Angus North & Mearns, Glasgow Pollok, Glasgow Shettleston, Rutherglen, Kilmarnock & Irvine Valley, Central Scotland (regional list), Mid-Scotland & Fife (regional list), Edinburgh Western and Edinburgh Southern.

I overran the target word count in the Mid-Scotland & Fife piece, so the final sentence didn’t make it in. As it was a sort of ‘punchline’, I’ll present it here for your delectation and delight –

“So the next time you see one of those gaudy ‘Winning With Willie Rennie’ posters, just remember it could be pretty much anyone who is winning with him.”