YouGov poll points to big pro-independence majority in the new Scottish Parliament

There are two key factors that ensure these numbers would translate into a large pro-indy majority.  Firstly, a very large lead for a single party on the constituency ballot effectively busts the Additional Member System, and the SNP lead has actually increased in this poll – although ironically that’s due to an intra-unionist swing from Tory to Labour.  And secondly there’s the strong performance of the Greens on the list, which will produce more returns in terms of seats than the SNP’s own list vote *if* the constituency numbers are accurate and hold relatively steady for the rest of the campaign.  Unlike Alba, the Greens have had the big advantage of being included in the TV debates, and Patrick Harvie did particularly well in the STV debate and may have won over some new converts.

As for Alba, I’ve pointed out before that: a) parties have won a seat in Holyrood on as little as 2% of the national vote before, and b) polls are snapshots not predictions in any case.  Alba only need to be on 5% or 6% to get a decent number of seats, so there’s still all to play for – even assuming YouGov have got it right.  Other firms have shown a higher Alba figure.

You can catch-up with Episode 6 of the Scot Goes Popcast, in which I speak to Alba Party leader Alex Salmond, HERE (with video) or HERE (audio only).  And if you find Scot Goes Pop’s coverage of polls helpful and would like it to continue, I’m currently running a fundraiser HERE.

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