There’s been a bit of a pattern on social media in recent weeks that anyone who says anything complimentary about Alex Salmond, or suggests he might have a future in politics or in public life, finds themselves presented with a graphic (a rather tacky graphic, it has to be said) comparing Mr Salmond’s net personal rating with those of Nicola Sturgeon and Boris Johnson. This is done with a “game over” sort of implication. To which the obvious reply is “haven’t you heard of proportional representation?”, ie. “don’t you know that only 6% of the vote in any region is enough to become an MSP?” It doesn’t matter if only a relatively small minority of the population have a favourable view of a politician or a party, as long as that minority feel strongly enough to actually come out and vote for the said politician or party.
The Salmond bashers have a shiny new toy to play with as a result of the new Survation poll (which, don’t forget, was mostly conducted before Friday’s evidence session).
Which of the following would make the best First Minister?
Alex Salmond: 12%
Nicola Sturgeon: 60%
The response to this is the same: 12% of the vote would be more than enough to win a considerable number of list seats. However, we have to be cautious about that 12% figure, because some of it may be unionist respondents who are trying to give the most problematical answers for the SNP on every question. So let’s have a look at what 2014 Yes voters have to say…
Yes voters only:
Alex Salmond: 14%
Nicola Sturgeon: 74%
Because 45% of the electorate voted Yes in 2014, the 14% of Yes voters who would prefer Alex Salmond to be FM ought to comprise 6% of the electorate. In practice it’s not as simple as that, because the electorate has changed due to deaths, migrations, young people turning 16, etc, etc. And of course a minority of people who voted Yes seven years ago are now in the No column. But as a ballpark figure, let’s suppose that 6% of the total electorate are both pro-independence and actively favour Alex Salmond over Nicola Sturgeon as First Minister. That strikes me as a pretty obvious recipe for a Salmond-led party winning seats. It’s also, incidentally, a clue as to why a Yes list-only party without the involvement of a big name politician would be unlikely to succeed, because I very much doubt that a poll would find that 14% of Yes voters prefer Dave Thompson, Colette Walker or Stuart Campbell over Nicola Sturgeon (not because of any personal faults of those individuals, but simply because most people don’t know who they are).
To reiterate, I’ve no idea if Mr Salmond will get involved in the coming election, and he’s cutting it a bit fine if he intends to do so. But the opportunity would certainly appear to be there.
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