The Survation poll published a couple of days ago raised the genuine possibility that Yes support might have fallen back slightly, because it was the third poll out of four to show a 2-point drop. But that theory has been blown out of the water by a sensational new poll from ComRes that by two clear percentage points puts Yes at the highest ever level of support in any poll conducted online by any firm.
Should Scotland be an independent country? (Savanta ComRes)
Yes 58% (+5)
No 42% (-5)
Even if this poll proves to be an outlier, it’s pretty much impossible to reconcile it with a situation in which Yes is moving backwards. At worst it means that nothing much has changed since the summer, and at best it means we’ve taken another big step forward. It’s also, of course, the sixteenth poll in a row to put Yes ahead on the standard indy question, and the seventeenth in a row if you add in a Progress Scotland poll that used a non-standard format.
Today’s results are from a new series of monthly polls commissioned by The Scotsman – and whatever you think of that publication, it’s a very welcome development. Scotland, at this stage in its political story, is crying out for regular polling, and yet the monthly Herald/System Three series that ran for decades is now a long-distant memory. Curiously, The Scotsman have opted to slightly blunt the impact of their first poll by billing the 58% Yes vote as merely the join highest ever – which is true, but only if you count a poll that used a completely different data collection method (an Ipsos-Mori telephone poll in October).
I’m on record as saying many times that if Nicola Sturgeon intends to wait until Yes hits a sustained 60% in the polls before doing anything, she’ll wait forever and Scotland will never become independent. I was asked this morning if the ComRes numbers have changed my mind about that. As ever, the answer is no: we still haven’t reached 60%, and even if we eventually do in the occasional poll, it’s unlikely to be on a sustained basis. But hopefully now we’ve actually reached these giddy heights, the penny may have dropped with the leadership that we don’t need anything over and above this. And Keith Brown’s repeated use of the words “settled will” would appear to support that interpretation.
More details and analysis to follow…
