Or to be more precise, wouldn’t happen.
It sucks being right all the time. But at least now, as we asked for, the lie is over. So that’s a good thing. We suppose we should celebrate, but we don’t feel much like it.
What the decision means is that the earliest realistic possible date for a second referendum is now the end of August 2021. Why? Because primary legislation takes several months to proceed through the Scottish Parliament at the best of times, and we can be sure that the Unionist parties would hold it up as much as they could.
But even if it got through as quickly as possible, we’d then be into the early months of 2021, and it would be beyond insane to hold an indyref with a general election due a few weeks afterwards at which the whole thing could be overturned.
So assuming it can’t happen before the election (6 May), and that all the legislation had been completed before the election and was ready to go, you’re looking at 10 weeks after that (minimum campaign period), which is late August 2021.
