It’s truly inspiring that an impartial “polling and elections expert” would take the time to write letters to ordinary voters up and down the country, with no particular motive other than a simple urge to share his expertise with those less insightful than himself. He would never dream of telling you how to vote, in spite of the fact that he’s a current Liberal Democrat party member, a former Liberal Democrat county councillor, and a former Liberal Democrat candidate for parliament. It’s just pure coincidence that the “information” he provides is invariably that some disaster would befall the voter if they do anything other than vote Liberal Democrat. And nobody should be cynical about the fact that the microscopically small print at the bottom reveals that the letter was in fact published and promoted on behalf of the Liberal Democrats. They’re simply providing an invaluable public service without the slightest thought for their own advantage.
The wording is very similar to the letter Smithson put his name to in the 2017 election, but I notice it’s less constituency-specific – it just uses language like “in this area”, whereas last time it was spelling out “voters who want to stop the SNP in East Dunbartonshire should vote for Jo Swinson and the Liberal Democrats”. In one sense that’s lazier, but it’s also probably a sign that he’s just agreed to let the party use a general template anywhere they want – in other words his advice to voters is whatever the Liberal Democrats want it to be.
Smithson never had that much credibility as an “expert” to begin with – he’s made a series of near-comical howlers over the years, including confident predictions that Kitty Ussher would become leader of the Labour party (“remember you read it here first!”), that the Liberal Democrats would hold the Gordon constituency in 2015 (they lost to the SNP by almost 9000 votes), that the Fixed Term Parliaments Act made early elections nigh-on impossible (that’s been proved wrong twice in the space of two short years), and worst of all that the Lib Dems would be making a historic error if they did anything other than go into coalition with the Conservatives in 2010. But to the extent he’s got any reputation left to defend, he seems happy enough to squander it completely by being seen to once again pump out industrial-scale propaganda for his own political party, and indeed by allowing that party to put words in his mouth.
You can tell from the framing of the letter that it’s matched to the profile of the individual voter – if they’re a natural Tory they’ll be told that “the data” shows they have to vote Lib Dem to stop Corbyn, and if they’re a natural Labour supporter they’ll be told “the data” shows they have to vote Lib Dem to stop Johnson and a Hard Brexit. Essentially if you don’t vote Liberal Democrat in this election, you’re anti-science.
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I have two more constituency profiles in today’s edition of The National – this time it’s Dumfries & Galloway and Cumbernauld, Kilsyth & Kirkintilloch East.
