I don’t know about anyone else, but I’m waiting with bated breath for the first polls with post-Tuesday fieldwork to see if the rigged ITV debate has had any impact on the SNP’s showing. Nothing so far, but what we do have are real votes cast in real ballot boxes yesterday in two Scottish local by-elections. Only one declaration is in so far, but the numbers are extremely encouraging.
Torry/Ferryhill by-election result (Aberdeen City Council):
SNP 43.2% (+11.8)
Conservatives 26.0% (+2.1)
Labour 10.6% (-12.8)
Liberal Democrats 8.4% (+3.3)
Greens 8.1% (+3.3)
Independent 2.3%
UKIP 1.4% (+0.5)
(Note: The above figures are taken from social media, and as is often the case the percentage changes simply don’t tally up with the actual 2017 result. However, in this case they don’t appear to be light-years out. I would normally try to calculate the correct figures myself, but I’m a bit pushed for time.)
The percentage changes are uncannily similar to last week’s three by-elections – the SNP are up, the Tories are up but not by as much, and Labour are down. It looks like voters are highly motivated to turn out for the SNP, which hopefully makes it less likely that the opinion polls will overestimate the SNP’s general election support this time. I don’t think we should jump to the conclusion that the Tories’ vote is likely to increase from 2017 – they tend to benefit from differential turnout in local by-elections, and a drop in the Independent vote may also have been a factor.
Bear in mind that not all of the votes in Torry/Ferryhill were cast after the rigged debate – most postal votes will have been completed before then. But it’s a highly reassuring result all the same.
