There’s no consistent trend in the GB-wide polls as far as the Tory v Labour battle is concerned – some have the Tories stretching away to a point where a large overall majority for Boris Johnson looks very hard to avoid, but others have the gap narrowing and leave open the possibility of a hung parliament. But one trend that does seem relatively consistent is that the Lib Dems have dropped back since the start of the campaign. Jo Swinson is entering a danger zone over the next couple of days – voters in England already seem to be concluding of their own accord that this is a traditional two-horse race, and if Tuesday night’s rigged Johnson v Corbyn debate on ITV is given the go-ahead by the courts, that conclusion could be further reinforced. Remain voters in England (except in seats that are clearly Lib Dem targets) may start to feel that Labour are the only game in town, and the Lib Dem vote could end up being severely squeezed.
On the face of it, that could be good news for the SNP in the five seats where the Lib Dems are their main opponents – but unfortunately the dynamics are a bit different in Scotland. A lot of Jo Swinson’s voters in East Dunbartonshire last time around were basically Tory supporters who weren’t much bothered about her party label – they just voted for her because they were persuaded by nefarious means that she was the only candidate who could beat the SNP. Maybe some of those people will be more discriminating this time due to Brexit – but I suspect the Lib Dems will retain a sizeable Tory tactical vote in those key constituencies.
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I’ve written another couple of constituency previews for today’s edition of The National – this time it’s Na h-Eileanan an Iar and Ross, Skye & Lochaber.
