There were three Scottish local by-elections yesterday, and we’ve had the results of two so far. The SNP won both – one was technically a hold, the other was technically a gain from the Conservatives, although both were wards in which the SNP topped the popular vote last time. Unfortunately the percentage changes you may have seen in one or two places on social media (including on Britain Elects) are completely inaccurate – it’s amazing how often that happens. The incorrect figures exaggerated the swing to the SNP, but the real figures are decent enough anyway.
Dunfermline Central by-election result:
SNP 33.2% (+3.4)
Conservatives 24.8% (+0.7)
Liberal Democrats 22.8% (+15.9)
Labour 13.5% (-13.1)
Greens 5.1% (+1.9)
Libertarians 0.6% (n/a)
Rosyth by-election result:
SNP 42.8% (+6.3)
Conservatives 24.4% (+2.1)
Labour 15.2% (-3.1)
Liberal Democrats 7.9% (+0.5)
Independent 5.0%
Greens 4.2% (+1.3)
Libertarians 0.5% (n/a)
So a small swing from the Tories to the SNP, and a bigger swing (especially in Dunfermline) from Labour to the SNP. Scarily, the Lib Dems came within two votes of beating the SNP in Dunfermline after lower preferences were redistributed – it’s unusual for a party to come so close to overturning a large first preference deficit. That may tell us something about how hard it’s going to be for the SNP to win any of the five seats at the general election where the Lib Dems are their main opponent – ie. the Lib Dems may be able to successfully squeeze the Tory vote.
