I’m beginning to wonder if a full-scale Scottish poll is ever going to be conducted in this campaign, but in the meantime, here’s the next best thing – an average of the last five Scottish subsamples from GB-wide YouGov polls. YouGov’s subsamples differ from those of other firms because they appear to be correctly structured and weighted. The combined fieldwork for these five took place entirely after the most recent full-scale Scottish poll from YouGov, which was conducted in late October.
SNP 44.2%
Conservatives 23.0%
Labour 12.6%
Liberal Democrats 11.8%
Brexit Party 4.6%
Greens 3.4%
So the SNP appear to have come through the early skirmishes of the campaign unscathed, although the real danger points (ie. the rigged leaders’ debates) are yet to come. I would guess the above figures slightly underestimate the Tories, because four of the five subsamples preceded the methodological change to take account of the Brexit Party standing aside in Tory-held seats.
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