YouGov have changed their polling methodology for the remainder of the campaign to ensure that respondents are only asked about parties they can actually voted for in their local constituencies. In spite of the way the first poll using the new method is being reported, the Brexit Party’s decision to stand aside in Tory-held seats does not appear to be making a huge difference to the gap between the Tories and Labour. The Tory lead would have been 13 points under the old methodology and it’s 14 points under the new. However, the Liberal Democrats will be alarmed that their vote drops under the new methodology while both the Tory and Labour vote increases. This is looking increasingly like a conventional two-horse race south of the border between two anti-Remain parties, and the rigged ITV and BBC leaders’ debates (if they go ahead) will only reinforce that.
Just for a moment, I was slightly concerned about what the new methodology would show in Scotland, because the SNP’s share of the GB-wide vote is slightly lower than usual at 3%. However, it looks like that’s just a statistical quirk, because the SNP’s vote in the Scottish subsample is very much within their normal range –
SNP 42%, Conservatives 25%, Labour 14%, Liberal Democrats 14%, Brexit Party 2%, Greens 2%
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I’ve had a look at the SNP’s prospects in two key Scottish Tory-held constituencies (East Renfrewshire and Banff & Buchan) for The National – you can read the article HERE.
