Many thanks to a fellow James for alerting me to the Holyrood voting intention numbers from the new Panelbase poll for the Sunday Times, which he found deep in the polls section of What Scotland Thinks – I’m not sure if they’ve been published elsewhere yet, or if they’ve merely been under-reported.
Scottish Parliament constituency ballot:
SNP 42% (n/c)
Conservatives 21% (+1)
Labour 19% (+3)
Liberal Democrats 10% (-1)
Scottish Parliament regional list ballot:
SNP 38% (-1)
Conservatives 21% (+1)
Labour 18% (+2)
Liberal Democrats 11% (+1)
Greens 6% (-1)
That’s a similar-ish pattern to the Westminster numbers, although the mystery is that Labour seem to be the party that have recovered most. The two big things that have changed about the political weather since the last Panelbase poll in June is the tide going out somewhat on the Brexit Party, which ought to benefit the Tories more than anyone else, and the ascent of a Scottish MP to the leadership of one of the London parties, which ought to benefit the Liberal Democrats. And yet the Lib Dems are essentially flatlining, there’s only the faintest of signs of Tory recovery, and it’s Labour that have put on three points on the constituency ballot. I suppose I’m a tad sceptical, and I’m wondering if the Labour boost is an illusion caused by a sampling quirk.
This is yet another poll suggesting that we’re on course to retain the pro-independence majority at Holyrood in 2021, although it would perhaps be a slightly smaller majority than at present. The Scotland Votes model suggests the SNP would retain the 63 seats they won in 2016, but the Greens would slip back from 6 to 3. So there would be 66 pro-indy seats altogether, slightly outnumbering the 63 unionist seats. It’s important to stress that Panelbase have in recent times reported less favourable numbers for the SNP than other firms have (on the constituency ballot at any rate), so it’s conceivable that the true situation is somewhat better than this.
