The first novel I remember reading is “The Hitch-Hiker’s Guide To The Galaxy”, shortly after it came out in 1979. I was 12, and it had a huge and lasting effect on me – it was the first thing that made me want to be a writer, and both Adams’ writing style and the worldview it deftly illustrated have been lifelong influences.
Almost every line in the book is great, but this one always stuck with me:
And so to the last of the results from our current poll.
Finding out what SNP voters think, with the aim of understanding how a Yes vote might be won, has provoked a frankly enormous outpouring of rage over the past week from SNP members, chiefly (one can only assume) because it’s revealed a considerable amount of unhappiness from voters about the party’s current direction in several areas.
But none nearly as big as this one:
Just SEVEN percent of SNP voters (and just SIX percent of those who actually want independence) are happy with the party’s policy of sticking exclusively to “Plan A” – asking Westminster over and over for permission to hold a second referendum until at some point it inexplicably caves in.
But as the annual autumn conference begins in Aberdeen today, Nicola Sturgeon has unequivocally committed the party to this plan, and in this morning’s papers the FM lambasts those calling for a fallback plan to force the UK government to grant a new vote as “opponents” falling for a “Unionist trap”.
The Sunday Times, meanwhile, has unveiled a new Panelbase poll showing support for independence at 50/50 – the highest ever recorded by the company – or a Yes lead of 54-46 when compared to a no-deal Brexit.
It also carries analysis from Prof. Sir John Curtice unambiguously identifying that the increase in Yes support is Brexit-driven.
Yet in addition to sticking solely to Plan A – which has singularly failed to work for the last two and a half years, with the UK government saying “Now is not the time” as doggedly as ever – it remains SNP policy to stop Brexit altogether, not only against the wishes of the party’s own supporters and invalidating the 2016 electoral mandate for a second indyref, but also destroying the main and obvious reason that support for independence is now finally creeping towards a fragile majority.
Attempts to point out these undeniable facts this week have been…challenging.
On the Andrew Marr Show this morning, the First Minister explicitly and unequivocally denied having ever asked the UK government for a Section 30 order, which came as a surprise to a great many people who’d been very much given the impression – by her – that she did just that in March 2017.
We do not recall the Scottish Government issuing any press statements in March 2017 protesting at the media’s uniform presentation of the letter as a “formal request” for a Section 30 and clarifying its nature as being something else. They were entirely happy for it to be regarded as such, but now appear to be rewriting history to claim that it was merely some sort of casual general enquiry.
Nicola Sturgeon also told Andrew Marr this morning that she expected to submit a second/first ever formal Section 30 request to the UK government within the next few weeks, and pointed out that SNP policy had always been to wait until the outcome of Brexit was clear before taking such action.
It seems, how shall we put this, optimistic to imagine that final Brexit clarity will have been achieved by some time in November.
About an hour after the FM’s interview, SNP MP Kirsty Blackman told Gordon Brewer on Sunday Politics Scotland that SNP policy was still for a second Brexit referendum following a general election, though she refused to be drawn on whether the party’s MPs would actually vote for either of those things at the special sitting of the Commons this coming Saturday.
Labour’s stated policy, were they to defy all the polls and somehow win that election, is to restart negotiations with the EU and magically come up with some sort of new deal, that they might or might not support in the subsequent referendum.
We don’t know how long they plan to spend on those negotiations, but it seems, with the best will in the world, absolutely absurd to imagine that a general election could be triggered, called, held, deliver a conclusive result, then lead to the renegotiations, the calling, the debating the terms of, the campaigning in and the holding of a second EU referendum in anything under, let’s say, a year at a minimum.
That takes us to late 2020 before we could even start thinking about a second indyref, and the Electoral Commission have stated that they’d want the enabling legislation passed at least nine months before the vote, which would be summer 2021. But the SNP are still insisting that it would be actually held before the end of next year.
All of which also assumes that the UK government would have become more likely to grant an indyref that polls suggest they would lose than they have been for the last 30 months to grant one that polls have said they’d win.
We’re really sorry, folks, but that’s a crass insult to your intelligence.
Our Twitter timeline and Facebook page have been an avalanche of angry SNP fans dutifully parroting the line that a Section 30 order has in fact never been requested, we all just imagined it, and the party has an ingenious secret plan up its sleeve to ensure a referendum by next year that it simply can’t reveal at this stage because it would enable Unionists to sabotage it or something.
Apparently this secret plan has been shared with random Twitter users, but not with the scores of the party’s MPs, MSPs, councillors and even ministers who tell us that it doesn’t exist. We really hope it comes out soon. Ideally about eighteen months ago.
And doubtless this post will simply further fuel the fire of all the tinfoil-hatters calling us “traitors”, “infiltrators” and “Yoon plants” this week. It’s been getting so bad that we’ve barely managed to bring ourselves to cash all the huge MI5 salary cheques. But the 80% of SNP voters who we now know aren’t buying Plan A are either on the secret services’ payroll too, or they’re playing a REALLY long sleeper game.
Proof denies faith, readers. Just keep believing, don’t ask any awkward questions, and we’re sure it’ll all be fine.
