So there were a few interesting points made in response to the previous post. Scottish Skier pointed out that the three YouGov subsamples putting the SNP in the 30s had followed on from others that put the SNP at an unusually high level of support, so this could all be normal sampling variation signifying nothing other than that the SNP vote has held steady in the low 40s. That’s possible, although obviously the more consecutive subsamples that put the SNP in the 30s, the more likely it is that something has genuinely changed. It’s also true that the most recent Opinium subsample had the SNP at a very healthy 50%, although unlike YouGov subsamples, that one won’t have been correctly structured or weighted.
Someone else suggested the reason for any Lib Dem surge could be their outright “Revoke” stance, which means that if the election doesn’t happen until after a No Deal Brexit, support for the Lib Dems could evaporate. I think that’s putting it a bit strongly, although it’s true that the Lib Dem offer to the voters would have to be very different in a post-Brexit election, and it remains to be seen how voters would respond to that. Would they be convinced by a promise to take the UK back into the EU, which might mean years or decades of further turmoil? Or would they be satisfied by a promise to soften Brexit but not to rejoin the EU? It’s impossible to know at this stage, so yes, the jury is out on how the Lib Dems would fare if the election is delayed beyond Brexit.
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Stuart Campbell has commissioned a poll of 1000 people who plan to vote SNP on the Holyrood constituency ballot. The early results he’s published are of no great interest or significance, but I can’t see any reason why he’d have commissioned such a poll unless he’s finally decided to test the potential support for a “Wings party” on the regional list ballot. So I would guess that moment is about to arrive. Remember to beware of dodgy Archie Stirling/Change UK-type questions that give a wildly distorted impression of how well the party might do. But with a bit of luck Mr Campbell might have asked a credible question and we’ll at last reach the moment of truth.
