This poll was released 24 hours ago, but it’s worth flagging up, because it suggests that the Peterborough by-election has not resulted in the tide going back out on the Brexit Party.
Britain-wide voting intentions for Westminster (YouGov):
Brexit Party 26% (n/c)
Liberal Democrats 22% (+2)
Labour 19% (-1)
Conservatives 17% (-1)
Greens 8% (-1)
SNP 4% (-1)
Plaid Cymru 1% (+1)
Change UK 1% (+1)
Scottish subsample: SNP 38%, Liberal Democrats 19%, Conservatives 15%, Brexit Party 11%, Labour 8%, Greens 6%, Change UK 2%, Women’s Equality Party 1%
But surely, you might think, the Peterborough by-election did at least disprove the idea that the Brexit Party could win a general election in practice? Maybe, but not necessarily. Peterborough was won by Labour’s superior organisation and local knowledge, but it’s a lot easier to make full use of those advantages in a by-election, when people can be brought in from across the country. The Brexit Party will fight a general election on a somewhat more level playing field. Nevertheless, I do expect Farage to start going backwards in the near future, simply because Boris Johnson looks almost certain to become Prime Minister, and that will bring Brexiteer votes back to the Tory fold. I expect that process to happen in Scotland as well, so in spite of the perception that a Boris premiership will be Christmas, birthday and Hogmanay rolled into one for Nicola Sturgeon, it may well be that the Scottish Tories’ chances of holding their seats in the north-east are about to improve somewhat.
The YouGov subsample suggests that the Lib Dems may also be a slightly increasing threat to the SNP. But let’s be honest: for as long as Scottish Labour are on just 8% – that’s EIGHT PER CENT – there’s nothing much to fear from an early general election. Most marginal seats in Scotland are SNP-Labour marginals.
UPDATE: Literally one minute after I posted the above, an even newer YouGov poll emerged, with perhaps the first early sign of a Boris Bounce for the Tories, who are up four points and have drawn level with Labour. The Brexit Party are still in the lead, but have dropped two points. The Lib Dems have slipped back to fourth place.
