So I received my official Ruth Davidson’s Conservatives Election Communication through the door this morning, and a few points leap out at me…
* They seem to have entirely given up on voters with a primarily Scottish national identity. Note the prominent usage of the Union Jack and the total absence of the saltire. They’ve travelled a long way since the likes of Michael Forsyth co-opted the saltire as part of the unionist brand in 1990s. Now, doubtless their strategists would point out that Ruth Davidson has had greater electoral success than Michael Forsyth, but it does mean they’re limiting themselves to a niche market – British identity is much weaker in Scotland than Scottish national identity. It would be reasonable to suggest that this approach was far more compatible with Davidson’s aim in 2016 of becoming the largest opposition party than it is with her current stated objective of becoming First Minister.
* They seem to have entirely given up on Remain voters. How on earth do you win a majority in Scotland if you only want people who are BOTH self-identifying Brits AND Leave supporters (38% of the population in 2016 and now a touch lower)? It’s even harder now that the Brexit Party seems to have become overnight the natural home for passionate Leavers, which means that the Tories are effectively left chasing after the voters who do want Brexit but don’t particularly prioritise it.
* They’re testing the credulity of voters with a bizarre juxtaposition between the “no more divisive referendums!” message and their insistence that “the result of the divisive referendum we held ourselves only three years ago MUST be respected!!!!”
* I wouldn’t actually rule out the possibility that lazily rerunning the 2017 anti-indyref message could gain some traction – but if it does, that could conceivably split the Brexit Party vote and help the SNP. I’m not even joking. If yesterday’s YouGov subsample is right about the Scottish Tories only being on 6% of the vote for the Euro elections (a perfectly plausible figure given that the Tory vote across Britain is just 10%), they’re well below the de facto threshold for winning a seat, and an extra 1% or 2% of votes for them will be wasted votes.
* If a vote for the Conservatives in this election is a vote to “tell Nicola Sturgeon – no more referendums”, doesn’t it logically follow that if the Tories are wiped out and the SNP gain a seat (as the YouGov subsample implies will happen), the public must want a referendum?
