Every day seems to bring word of a poll showing even more progress for the Brexit Party, and the latest from YouGov is no exception.
Britain-wide voting intentions for Westminster (YouGov):
Conservatives 24% (-5)
Labour 24% (-5)
Brexit Party 18% (+3)
Liberal Democrats 16% (+3)
Greens 7% (+2)
SNP / Plaid Cymru 5% (+1)
Change UK 2% (-1)
UKIP 2% (n/c)
Scottish subsample: SNP 41%, Labour 15%, Conservatives 14%, Brexit Party 12%, Liberal Democrats 10%, Greens 5%, UKIP 1%, Change UK 1%
Britain-wide voting intentions for European Parliament (YouGov):
Brexit Party 34% (+4)
Labour 16% (-5)
Liberal Democrats 15% (+5)
Greens 11% (+2)
Conservatives 10% (-3)
Change UK 5% (-4)
SNP 3% (n/a)
UKIP 3% (-1)
Plaid Cymru 1% (n/a)
Scottish subsample: SNP 38%, Brexit Party 21%, Liberal Democrats 11%, Labour 10%, Greens 9%, Conservatives 6%, Change UK 2%
To say that public opinion is fast-moving at the moment would be the understatement of the century. It seems like no time at all ago that we thought the hardline Brexit vote would be split down the middle between the Brexit Party and UKIP, and that the hardline Remain/anti-independence vote would be split between the Lib Dems and Change UK, perhaps meaning that all four parties might miss out on a European Parliament seat in Scotland. But the Brexit Party and the Lib Dems seem to have decisively won the side-battles against their ideological cousins, which turns our expectations for the Euro seat allocation upside down. If by any chance the YouGov subsample is completely accurate, the six Scottish seats would be distributed as follows: SNP 3, Brexit Party 2, Liberal Democrats 1. There would be no Labour or Tory representation at all – the first time in history that Scottish Labour would have been wiped out in the European Parliament.
Although the Tories slumping to a scarcely believable fifth place across Britain is the most eye-catching aspect of the poll, the Scottish Tories’ 6% share in the Euro subsample is also worthy of note. Will the myth of Ruth ever recover?
As far as the Westminster figures are concerned, this wouldn’t be the first time in recent decades that we’ve seen weird numbers that amounted to nothing when an election came around – remember the SDP surge, or the Cleggasm, or the temporary lead for William Hague during the fuel crisis of 2000. But I do wonder if this time could be different, particularly if Britain hasn’t yet left the European Union by the day of the election and if Brexit passions are still running high. Almost anything could happen. I talked the other day about the nightmare scenario of Nigel Farage ending up as Prime Minister, but we shouldn’t overlook the lesser-but-somehow-equal nightmare of Jo Swinson walking through the doors of Number 10. The Lib Dems’ 16% share, which looks thoroughly unimpressive compared to the achievements of Charles Kennedy, is nevertheless enough to put them just eight points off the outright lead.
