The great frustration of the current Brexit shambles is that we’re being told there are no viable options. But that isn’t true. This site has already put forward one perfectly workable proposal, and here’s another.
Before the 2014 referendum on Scottish independence, Scotland was told that if they left the UK, they would automatically leave the EU, leaving the rUK as the successor European state.
Scotland, it was said, would be cast out of Europe, immediately and automatically and without negotiation. Brussels agreed with Westminster on this interpretation.
This outcome of independence was said by Westminster sources to be a legal certainty, with no possibility of avoiding the consequences of being bounced out of the EU. The EU could not rescue Scotland and no treaties would exist to do so.
And that leads to a logical conclusion: if England (and perhaps Wales) decided to leave the UK instead of Scotland, leaving Scotland as the successor state in the EU, the same would be true.
Independence for England (and Wales) solves many Brexiter problems at a stroke. What Scotland was threatened with in 2014 – immediate exclusion from the EU – could be achieved with no effort on their part, and without dragging any other UK nations along against their will.
The new unit could leave without any encumbrance, no obligations, no divorce payments and, importantly, no worries about any backstop or lengthy ties to European courts and regulations. We already know that most Leavers, and indeed most English people in general, would be happy with this arrangement.
Northern Ireland would have to choose its own destiny: stay in the “UK” with Scotland, join the New Britain of England and probably Wales (if they wanted it, which isn’t a given), or reuniting with the rest of Ireland. That’d be a pretty interesting referendum, but until such times as one was held NI would still technically be remaining in the UK, which would put the DUP in an intriguing and confusing spot.
We know from polling that Scottish voters could live with a border with New Britain better than Northern Ireland can with Ireland – although of course the UK is currently still insisting that unspecified technical solutions could solve this problem anyway.
(One of the great unspoken truths of the constitutional debate, incidentally, is that the Borders counties would love a new frontier. Oh, they might protest outwardly about the inconvenience, but would swiftly revert with delight to all the ancient practices of smuggling and border mischief that underlie the heritage of the Reiver lands.)
What’s attractive about this option is that no further EU referendum is required. It fulfils the referendum mandate for the UK to make the best leaving of the EU as can be managed while the remainder EU state of Scotland/NI tidies things up.
(There’d be some renegotiating of the new UK’s relationship with the EU to be done, of course, including remodelling of its financial contributions and representation to account for its much smaller size, but with both sides fundamentally wanting the same thing they shouldn’t be too unpleasant.)
For Leave-voting England and Wales, it solves all their problems, giving them freedom to immediately negotiate trade deals with whoever they want while losing the northern “awkward squads” at the same time.
Others will be sad but recognise that the parting of the ways was already implicit in the outcome of the EU referendum and an inevitable outcome of devolution of powers to the UK nations. The referendum seriously split the UK Remainer north from the Leaver south and nothing is likely to unite the two halves any time soon.
Reverse independence provides an elegant and quick solution for the parts of the UK that want to leave the EU to do so without hindrance, while the Remainer nations get their wish to stay and the Irish Question simply goes away.
(Unless NI wanted to go with England and Wales, but there would be no rational reason for it to do so – both of the other options avoid a hard border and avoid leaving the EU, and one of them would still constitute staying in the UK under the Queen, so would theoretically be sellable to Loyalists, or at least difficult to coherently oppose.)
The specific mechanism to achieve this result would be to withdraw the Article 50 notice that started the leaving negotiations. That removes the unwelcome current deal completely and returns the UK to normal membership of the EU. Westminster would then pass a law on behalf of England and Wales withdrawing from the 1707 Act Of Union, citing the Brexit vote in both nations as justification, and expressly noting that “the UK” now comprised Scotland and NI (subject to the latter’s decision).
Many would mourn the breakup of the UK as a state. However, all the nations would remain in the Union of the Crowns that began in 1603 and the emotional connection of a united kingdom, the united monarchy, would remain as before. After all, the current UK doesn’t hate Canadians or Australians.
The Queen would continue to enjoy her holiday home in the Highlands in the same way as many New Brits would keep theirs in Spain and France. Huge numbers of citizens would also acquire dual citizenship to retain family ties and easy passage between the nations, that principle having been established and agreed by both sides during the 2014 indyref.
The “meaningful vote” in Parliament could resolve the current impasse on Brexit and set this reverse independence in motion. SNP MPs would vote for it in a heartbeat, most Tories would probably go along with it, and a lot of Labour MPs in heavily Leave-voting constituencies would be given a way out of their current dilemma.
Scotland would remain in the Union of the Crowns and the Commonwealth with the other nations, Scottish soldiers will still play pipes and drums at Buckingham Palace. Lifelong friendship and family ties between the nations would continue to blossom in a new understanding.
New Britain would set about trading freely with the world and Scotland would enjoy becoming a normal small, inclusive, outward-looking nation in the EU. Northern Ireland would make its choice as to where it wanted to be in due time. (Both could welcome Remainer immigrants from England and Wales to a new life in a familiar land, boosting their economies.)
Everybody wins. Job done!
