Scottish politics is still resolutely on holiday, but in response to an enquiry from Prof. Sir John Curtice today we noticed that we still hadn’t published a few snippets of data from our most recent Panelbase poll. So in the absence of anything else to talk about, we might as well have a wee look.
Our poll showed a striking gulf in support for the EU between independence supporters and Unionists. Were there to be a second EU referendum tomorrow, Yes voters would choose remain by an enormous 36-point margin, and by well over two to one, whereas No voters were a much tighter eight points apart, with only barely over half plumping for Remain.
But even that overstates Unionists’ fondness for the European Union.
Because when asked if there should actually BE a second referendum on Brexit, Yes voters were again emphatic, with more than two-to-one favouring a second shot. But No voters, even though most of them don’t want to leave, also don’t want to vote for it – just over a third wanted another EUref, with an absolute majority – 52% – opposed.
In other words, No voters want to stay in the EU, but not if it means rejecting England’s right to overrule Scottish votes. There’s something to mull over for a moment, folks.
Things got a bit more confusing for No voters over the issue of the Irish border. When asked for the best solution to the problem, they were almost exactly of the same mind as Yes voters, with “No Brexit” being comfortably the most popular option (followed, slightly disturbingly, by Don’t Know).
But No voters were less than half as likely as Yes voters to back a united Ireland, and more willing to see various kinds of borders erected.
And finally to some of the most confused people in Britain:
One in seven No voters were willing to endure Scottish independence if it meant getting out of the EU, with slightly over the same number again being prepared to at least consider it. Which is weird, since they currently ARE getting out of the EU as part of the UK, but clearly it’s so important to them that they’d sacrifice the UK for it if they had to.
(The other part of the confusion is largely our fault, to be fair. The question is of such a fundamentally different character to Yes voters that it’s difficult to attach much meaning to their figures. What are Yes voters replying “No” to that question actually saying?)
Make of all that what you will, readers and Prof. Sir John.
