Spectacular Survation poll suggests SNP are on course for landslide

Scottish voting intentions for next UK general election:

SNP 42% (+3)
Conservatives 24% (n/c)
Labour 23% (-4)
Liberal Democrats: 8% (+1)

Scottish Parliament voting intentions (constituency ballot):

SNP 43% (+1)
Conservatives 24% (-1)
Labour 21% (-4)
Liberal Democrats 9% (+3)

Scottish Parliament voting intentions (regional list ballot):

SNP 33% (+1)
Labour 21% (-2)
Conservatives 19% (-4)
Greens 11% (+2)
Liberal Democrats 9% (+1)
UKIP 5% (+2)

I’ve got a few things on today, so I’ll update this with analysis when I have a chance, but a couple of quick observations…

Most importantly, this is the most favourable poll for the SNP and the pro-independence parties since the general election. If these numbers were replicated at the ballot box, there would still be a pro-independence majority at Holyrood, the SNP would regain all of the six Westminster seats they lost to Labour last year, and would even regain the bulk of the twelve seats they lost to the Tories.

Secondly, it appears from the partial datasets published yesterday that 16 and 17 year olds weren’t interviewed for the poll. If that isn’t a misprint, it represents a major and inexplicable retrograde step for Survation, who previously have been good about interviewing the correct electorate. It raises the question of whether the 47% figure for Yes published yesterday may have been a smidgeon too low.

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