2016 PM David Cameron gives way to the Tory right-wing and calls a referendum on EU membership. The inevitable Remain win will solve Tory party divisions & halt UKIP’s rise. Media focus on the leadership battle and fail to examine economic claims. Leave wins. Cameron Resigns. Time for the Brexit plan…There is no Brexit plan (and there still is no clear plan 2 years later). Scotland faces being forced to leave the EU against its will by a Tory party it didn’t vote for who have no EU exit strategy. The Scottish Govt produces a plan for Brexit but it’s ignored by UK Govt. UK Govt claim to be working on Brexit impact reports then deny they exist. Scottish Govt release analysis showing Brexit could cost Scotland £12 Billion a year. Scottish Tories dismiss the ScotGov’s report as ‘exaggerated scaremongering’. Buzzfeed publish a leaked UK Govt report predicting Brexit will be a disaster, devastating or catastrophic; validating the Scottish Govt’s analysis. Scottish Tories go into hiding (while BBC Scotland looks the other way once again). Labour? The Party is divided on EU. Corbyn backs Hard-Brexit. Labour have failed to capitalise on Tory chaos (see latest polling). Brexit will damage Scotland’s economy and the devolved powers to do anything about it now face serious threat. Scotland has a choice: independence or subservience to an self-serving, right-wing Tory party hellbent on Brexit at any cost for the forseeable future..
Summary of Brexit Leak findings
‘UK Government Department for Exiting the European Union (DExEU) analysis of the Options’
No deal Brexit – 2,800,000 fewer jobs / £158bn loss per year
Trade agreement Brexit (but outside the single market) – 1,750,000 fewer jobs / £99bn loss per year
Soft Brexit – 700,000 fewer jobs / £39bn loss per year
Remain in EU – No impact on jobs / No £ loss per year*.
(*In 2016 the UK government paid £13.1 billion to the EU budget, and EU spending on the UK was forecast to be £4.5 billion. So the UK’s ‘net contribution’ was estimated at about £8.6 billion.)
Scotland’s Place in Europe Dec 2016
Scotland’s Place in Europe: People, Jobs and Investment Jan 2018
Buzzfeed’s report on the Brexit leak.