Comment – Aye We Can

How do oil and gas licences work?

qwertyfan — Mon, 25 Mar 2024 09:33:36 +0000

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Scottish Government accused of “broken promises” over marine protection

qwertyfan — Tue, 26 Mar 2024 10:00:00 +0000

Safety fears over drug residues in grouse after watchdog fails to test any Scottish birds

qwertyfan — Wed, 20 Mar 2024 12:01:33 +0000

Safety fears over drug residues in grouse after watchdog fails to test any Scottish birds

qwertyfan — Wed, 20 Mar 2024 15:00:41 +0000

Tories on the brink of being pushed into third place by Reform UK, says bombshell YouGov poll

qwertyfan — Fri, 22 Mar 2024 00:01:25 +0000

Apologies for the radio silence over the last few days, but rest assured I haven’t been completely idle – I was working on my iScot column for next month, and there was also Alba committee stuff going on. Today brings word of an extraordinary opinion poll that must make the Tories wonder why they even bothered to replace Liz Truss…

GB-wide voting intentions (YouGov / The Times, 19th-20th March 2024):

Labour 44% (-)

Conservatives 19% (-1)

Reform UK 15% (+1)

Liberal Democrats 9% (-)

Greens 8% (+1)

SNP 3% (-)

Plaid Cymru 1% (-)

Scottish subsample: SNP 35%, Labour 33%, Conservatives 16%, Greens 6%, Liberal Democrats 6%, Reform UK 4%

In other circumstances we might look at these numbers and think it’s still fanciful that Reform UK could overtake the Tories – much more likely, we would think, that the more traditional party will re-establish itself when polling day comes into view. But what makes this situation different is the chance of a Nigel Farage comeback. If Reform UK are only four points behind the Tories without him as leader, where will they be if and when he’s back in harness? This is a man, remember, who has led two different political parties to outright first place in two successive European elections, and also took UKIP to third place in the popular vote in the 2015 general election.

But whether second place in the popular vote for Reform UK would make the election more interesting or less interesting is difficult to say, because first-past-the-post ensures that the threshold for the party to win more than a tiny handful of seats is extremely high. So in terms of seats, the election could simply be turned into an even more boring triumphal procession for Starmer.

And there’s essentially no chance of Reform UK using second place in the polls (if they get there) as a springboard for greater things. We know from the pre-Brexit period that their natural ceiling of support is somewhere in the mid-20s – that was enough to get them into the outright lead in a handful of polls in 2019, but only because the division of support between other parties was so unusual at the time (incredibly, the Liberal Democrats were in second place in some of those polls). 25% in the polls right now would still leave them light-years behind Labour.

An achievement they might notch up, though, is to become the indirect cause of Rishi Sunak’s demise. Tory MPs who are worried about making themselves look ridiculous by installing a fourth Prime Minister within a single parliament (presumably it would be Penny Mordaunt, Tom Tugendhat or perhaps Kemi Badenoch) would start to think they have nothing left to lose if third place is staring them in the face.

There’s only limited comfort for the SNP in their narrow lead in the Scottish subsample, because Labour have led other recent YouGov subsamples and thus an average of the last few would show the SNP trailing.

Claim 12,000 died before ambulance reached hospital is False

qwertyfan — Fri, 22 Mar 2024 08:49:29 +0000

If Sunak falls, who will replace him?

qwertyfan — Fri, 22 Mar 2024 12:04:23 +0000

I said in the last post that if the opinion polls spook Tory MPs enough to install a fourth Prime Minister in a single parliament, the replacement would presumably be Penny Mordaunt, Tom Tugendhat or perhaps Kemi Badenoch. But at least according to the betting that’s wrong, with Tugendhat still rated as having less of a chance of being the next Tory leader than Nigel Farage – even though Farage is currently a member of another party and might even be about to become the leader of that party.

Next Conservative leader betting:

Kemi Badenoch 4.5

Penny Mordaunt 5.7

Suella Braverman 9.6

James Cleverly 10.5

Priti Patel 15

David Cameron 20

Nigel Farage 27

Boris Johnson 28

Tom Tugendhat 34

Remember this is the betting for the next Tory leader regardless of whether the vacancy occurs before or after the election, so for that reason it may make sense that Badenoch is clinging on to her position as favourite. The big advantage Mordaunt and Tugendhat would have in a pre-election contest is that Tory MPs would be in survival mode, and would be looking for the stop-gap leader who is most likely to connect with the public and limit the damage. But after the election, that advantage would disappear, and with years of opposition facing them, the Tories might well revert to ideological type.

As far as I know, the leadership rules remain unchanged, so it’s not hard to imagine Suella Braverman winning a post-election contest. If she could somehow sneak into the top two in the MPs’ ballot, she would probably storm to victory among the members on a populist pitch.

Revealed: Chronic North Sea oil spills threaten marine protected areas

qwertyfan — Sun, 24 Mar 2024 06:30:00 +0000

More despair for Starmer as Labour loses its outright lead in Scotland, and support for independence remains high at 48% – but Humza Yousaf’s worst personal numbers yet suggest the SNP must sort out its leadership problem before the general election

qwertyfan — Wed, 13 Mar 2024 21:12:58 +0000

The monthly Redfield & Wilton poll is out, and in a continuation of the familiar pattern, support for independence is impressively high but just can’t seem to break into the outright lead.

Should Scotland be an independent country? (Redfield & Wilton)

Yes 48% (-)

No 52% (-)

Before Don’t Knows are stripped out, the No lead has actually dipped slightly from four points to three.

On Westminster voting intentions, Redfield & Wilton have been oscillating recently between small Labour leads and level-pegging, and we’re back once again to the latter today.

Scottish voting intentions for the next UK general election:

SNP 34% (+1)

Labour 34% (-)

Conservatives 16% (-2)

Liberal Democrats 6% (-2)

Reform UK 4% (-)

Greens 4% (+2)

Alba 1% (-)

Seats projection (with changes from 2019 general election): Labour 27 (+26), SNP 20 (-28), Conservatives 6 (-), Liberal Democrats 4 (-)

As you can see from the seats projection, level-pegging just isn’t quite good enough for the SNP, because when the two largest parties are closely matched, first-past-the-post starts working firmly in Labour’s favour.

But what will concern the SNP more than the seats projection (or at least ought to) is Humza Yousaf’s personal numbers, because headline voting intentions are often less predictive of election results than leadership ratings. Last month’s Redfield & Wilton poll showed Yousaf slumping to a new all-time low net rating of -17. He essentially hasn’t recovered from that at all this month, bouncing back only to -16.

But it gets worse. Redfield & Wilton also regularly ask alternative leadership questions, pitting Yousaf in separate head-to-heads with Anas Sarwar and Douglas Ross respectively. Until last month, Yousaf had always come out on top on those questions, perhaps suggesting an underlying respect for his basic competence that the net ratings don’t pick up. But last month, Anas Sarwar drew level with him for the first time, and this month Sarwar has overtaken him for the first time.

At this moment, which of the following individuals do you think would be the better First Minister of Scotland?

Anas Sarwar 32% (-1)

Humza Yousaf 31% (-2)

Arguably even more dismal is the head-to head with Ross. Here Yousaf clings on to a six-point lead, but that is staggeringly low in the context of the current Tory unpopularity, and also in the context of Ross being widely regarded as a joke leader.

At this moment, which of the following individuals do you think would be the better First Minister of Scotland?

Humza Yousaf 36% (-3)

Douglas Ross 30% (+2)

We all know Yousaf is only where he is for factional reasons, ie. the ruling Sturgeon faction identified him as their least worst candidate available and pulled out all the stops to get him installed as leader. But there comes a point where the electoral crisis is great enough that factional interest has to give way to party interest. There is simply no point in retaining factional control of a party that cannot win at the ballot box. There are no guarantees, but if Yousaf is replaced by a more popular leader (probably Kate Forbes) before the general election, the likelihood is that the SNP vote will recover a bit, and that might make the difference between defeat and victory. And even if Yousaf stays in harness, bringing an end to factional rule by appointing a unity Cabinet with Forbes in a senior position could have some positive effect.

Scottish Parliament constituency ballot:

SNP 35% (-)

Labour 31% (-2)

Conservatives 18% (-)

Liberal Democrats 5% (-3)

Reform UK 4% (+1)

Greens 3% (-)

Alba 3% (+2)

Scottish Parliament regional list ballot:

Labour 29% (-)

SNP 28% (+1)

Conservatives 16% (-)

Greens 9% (-)

Liberal Democrats 9% (-)

Reform UK 5% (-)

Alba 3% (-)

Seats projection (with changes from 2021 election): SNP 42 (-22), Labour 41 (+19), Conservatives 21 (-10), Liberal Democrats 12 (+8), Greens 10 (+2), Reform UK 3 (+3)

The Holyrood voting intention changes are for the most part statistically insignificant, although because they’re in the SNP’s favour, they’re still enough to push the SNP back into a slight lead in the seats projection – albeit with fewer seats than Alex Salmond had when the SNP first took power with a precarious one-seat advantage in 2007. In spite of what has been said in some quarters, I’m not sure it’s impossible that the SNP could retain minority power on numbers like these. Labour and the Liberal Democrats would be well short of a majority between them, and once you add external support from the Tories into the mix, the arrangement becomes presentationally very messy.

Alba will be moderately heartened by these numbers – they’re still not projected to win any seats, but they’re only two points behind Reform UK, who are projected to win three seats. So that shows you what’s possible with a modest increase of support.

* * *

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For Fact’s Sake: What fake news will we see in the election?

qwertyfan — Thu, 14 Mar 2024 15:18:20 +0000

Comment – Aye We Can

How do oil and gas licences work?

Scottish Government accused of “broken promises” over marine protection

Safety fears over drug residues in grouse after watchdog fails to test any Scottish birds

Safety fears over drug residues in grouse after watchdog fails to test any Scottish birds

Tories on the brink of being pushed into third place by Reform UK, says bombshell YouGov poll

Claim 12,000 died before ambulance reached hospital is False

If Sunak falls, who will replace him?

Revealed: Chronic North Sea oil spills threaten marine protected areas

More despair for Starmer as Labour loses its outright lead in Scotland, and support for independence remains high at 48% – but Humza Yousaf’s worst personal numbers yet suggest the SNP must sort out its leadership problem *before* the general election

For Fact’s Sake: What fake news will we see in the election?

More despair for Starmer as Labour loses its outright lead in Scotland, and support for independence remains high at 48% – but Humza Yousaf’s worst personal numbers yet suggest the SNP must sort out its leadership problem before the general election