While the media in Scotland continues to scrabble around in the bins in search of another desperate angle on the Murrell scandal, it’s looking almost certain that there will be no leadership contest in the Labour party. Close Starmer ally Darren Jones, who had been tipped to make a leadership bid, has said he will not challenge Andy Burnham for the leadership after having a “reassuring conversation” with Burnham about his economic policy plans. Burnham has committed to adhering to the fiscal rules which have underpinned the economic policies of Starmer and Reeves.
This does not bode well for anyone hoping that Burnham taking over as Prime Minister will bring about a much needed radical change in direction from the UK Government. Another deeply troubling sign is Burnham’s appointment of the solidly Blairite former cabinet minister James Purnell as his chief of staff. Burnham’s new chief of staff is a man with a track record of kicking the poorest and the most vulnerable. Former chair of Labour Friends of Israel and a fan of PFI deals, Purnell was Work and Pensions Secretary when Blair stood down. In 2008 he proposed the downright nasty policy of charging 26.8% interest on crisis loans made to pensioners and the unemployed by the Benefits Agency, a move blocked by Gordon Brown. In 2009 he resigned from the cabinet as Brown was too left wing for him. He will now be key in setting the agenda for Burnham’s government.
Also tipped for an important role is former Labour Together director Josh Simmons, who stepped down as MP for Makerfield, allowing Burnham back into Parliament. Simmons was not being altruistic. He had effectively blown up his political career with the scandal that developed after it came to light that he had set private investigators on journalists who had the temerity to investigate the sources of the dark money which fuelled the right wing Labour pressure group. Standing down for Burnham was the perfect route to his political rehabilitation.
Burnham is likewise thought to have done a deal with his main rival for the leadership, the right wing Wes Streeting, friend of Palantir and private healthcare companies. Some Westminster rumours suggest that in return for standing down to clear the path to Number Ten for Burnham, the intensely ambitious Streeting is one of the favourites as Burnham’s pick for Chancellor. No government with Streeting as Chancellor is going to be left wing in anything but trivial aspects.
Together with the decision to abide by the fiscal rules, all this points to a government which will differ little in economic policy from Starmer. Supposedly aimed at limiting government borrowing, the fiscal rules have been criticised for incentivising short-sighted policymaking, stifling long-term public investment, and relying on unrealistic or easily gamed economic forecasts. In February, the Institute for Fiscal Studies published a report arguing that the fiscal rules need to be re-thought as they do not work well. The IFS noted that the current fiscal rules are achieving neither sustainable public finances nor credibility with financial markets. Nor do they deliver policy stability or incentives for good policymaking.
There is however one aspect of UK Government fiscal policy which Burnham has expressed an interest in changing radically, and it’s one which is alarming for people in Scotland, Wales, and Northern Ireland. In 2024 Burnham co-authored a book called Head North with Liverpool mayor Steve Rotherham. In the book Burnham argued that it was time to get rid of the Barnett Formula, saying: “The time has come to tear up the Green Book and the Barnett Formula and replace them with a modern funding formula which works for the English regions and the home nations.”
The Green Book is the UK government’s central guidance on how to assess the costs, benefits, and risks of public spending proposals, policies, and projects. The Green Book sets out a series of cost and benefit criteria which must be applied in any consideration of government spending and infrastructure investment. Following this framework is mandatory for UK government departments, agencies, and public bodies. The Green Book has been heavily criticised for causing disproportionate investment in the South East and London, heavily relying on flawed cost-benefit metrics, and failing adequately to assess long-term environmental or transformational impacts.
The devolved nations are to some extent protected against this heavy London and South East bias by the Barnett Formula which guarantees pro-rata funding for Scotland and Wales on government spending in England. This is not cast iron however, Wales has received nothing in extra funding from the billions which Westminster has splurged on HS2, the high speed railway between London and Birmingham, because Westminster has deemed the line as an “England and Wales” project as national rail infrastructure is reserved to Westminster, despite the fact that, as you may have noticed, neither London nor Birmingham are in Wales. But the real problem with Barnett Formula is that spending for Scotland, Northern Ireland and Wales is set by what Westminster determines to be England’s needs. England’s funding in this so called Union is never a function of any other part of the UK’s needs. Burnham will not address this. No British Prime Minister ever will.
The concern is that if Burnham does decide to revisit the Barnett Formula and the Green Book, it’s the interests of England which will win out, as is so often the case. Then Scotland and Wales will find themselves with budgets which are even more tightly squeezed in order to boost spending in the English regions. It’s hard to imagine any British Government imposing a fiscal policy which would be detrimental to the economically and politically dominant London and the South East or to Labour’s powerful corporate donors. As the Scottish Greens co-leader Gillian MacKay pointed out: “It doesn’t matter what formula is in place. If you are continuing to make cuts and underfund public services, then nothing changes.”
Of course Burnham could grant full fiscal autonomy to the Scottish Parliament. But we can safely file that one under “not going to happen.” What we are far more likely to see is a reduction in the Scottish block grant in the name of so called fairness and then Anas Sarwar will be screaming about SNP cuts. It’s all so drearily predictable.
What will probably also happen is an attempt to foist English style regional mayors on Scotland. This will be billed as “strengthening devolution” but the real motive will be to by-pass Holyrood and create an alternative power base in Scotland which Labour has a chance of controlling.
With Burnham it will be more of the same, with eye catching tweaks intended to show he’s different from Starmer but which have little of substance. He’s going to crash and burn because he will not address the deeper reasons for the UK’s economic and political malaise.
After wrestling for hours with PayPal, I have finally compiled a list of the emails of almost everyone who makes a regular monthly donation to the blog and will soon launch the weekly bonus premium email article for those who make a monthly contribution to the blog. I had hoped to launch this this week but unfortunately it will be delayed for a while. There are a number of people whose emails I am unable to find. Some people donate monthly by Ko-Fi, one makes a monthly donation to last year’s GoFundMe fundraiser, a few people make monthly payments directly by bank transfer. I cannot access the email addresses of any of these people and so cannot add them to the new mailing list. If you are one of these folk, please email me at weegingerbook@yahoo.com and I’ll add you to the mailing list.
Update 3.45 pm Thursday 25 June: Burnham has U-turned on his plan to abolish the Barnett Formula. No doubt the first of many U-turns. He probably didn’t want to draw attention to how much Scotland is being ripped off.
_____________________________
The annual blog fundraiser has reached its initial target but will keep running for a few weeks more. The initial target represented the bare minimum necessary to keep the blog going. Many thanks to everyone who has contributed. There are a number of ways to donate. You can contribute to my fundraiser on GoFundMe, the link is here.
https://www.gofundme.com/f/wee-ginger-dug-annual-fundraiser-2026
By Default GoFundMe has configured the donation page to monthly donations. You can still donate as a one off When you Click donate, on the donate page under the title WeeGinger Fundraiser 2026 you’ll see two buttons, one on the left saying GIVE ONCE and one on the right saying GIVE MONTHLY. This seems to be a new thing with GoFundMe. Click the left GIVE ONCE button so it is highlighted in Green then choose the amount you want to donate or enter it in the box below. If not, you can always make a one off donation by PayPal or Ko-Fi
You can donate via Ko-Fi here:
Or click the following link https://ko-fi.com/weegingerdug
One of the easiest ways to support this blog is with a PayPal donation. Please log into Paypal.com and send a payment to the email address weegingerbook@yahoo.com. Or alternatively click the donate button below. If you don’t have a PayPal account, just select “donate with card” after clicking the button. You can also donate by PayPal by using my PayPal.me link PayPal.Me/weegingerdug
https://www.paypal.com/paypalme/weegingerdug
If you would prefer to donate some other way, for example by bank transfer or cheque, please contact me at weegingerbook@yahoo.com for details. Once again, thank you to everyone for your support.
