Could the independence movement possibly avoid the slow-motion version of shooting itself in the foot in the Western Isles?

Although the Find Out Now MRP poll the other day was unusually – and some would say unrealistically – positive for the SNP, one dark cloud it still showed on the horizon was the projection that Labour would narrowly gain Na h-Eileanan an Iar. There’s something rather poignant about that, because traditionally the Western Isles (as the constituency used to be known) was a seat the SNP often won even when they were doing badly nationally, rather than the other way around. Indeed, the only reason we can say there has been continuous pro-independence representation in the House of Commons since the Hamilton by-election in 1967 is that the SNP gained the Western Isles in the 1970 general election while they were in the process of losing Hamilton back to Labour. It was also one of only two seats they retained anywhere in Scotland during the wilderness years between 1979 and 1987. Although they eventually lost it when Donald Stewart retired in 1987, they took it back with Angus MacNeil in 2005, at a time when they were only winning six seats nationally. They held it in 2010 in a similarly unpromising national context.

For clarity, here is the exact projection for Na h-Eileanan an Iar from Find Out Now –

Labour 40%

SNP 38%

Conservatives 10%

Greens 4%

Liberal Democrats 3%

Others 5%

So on the face of it, all is not yet lost, and it’s a very tight race. But the problem is that these numbers are not fully factoring in the division in the pro-independence camp, with Angus MacNeil now standing as an independent candidate (albeit loosely allied to Alba under the Scotland United banner), and the SNP idiotically insisting on splitting the Yes vote by standing against him. The 5% for ‘others’ is unusually high compared to most other constituencies, so it can be assumed that a lot of that is support for MacNeil – however that will just be the tip of the iceberg. MRP constituency projections work by ‘topping up’ the answers of respondents from the constituency itself with answers of respondents from elsewhere, and assuming they would vote the same way irrespective of where they live – which of course is a bogus assumption in this particular case. So the 38% for the SNP can be assumed to be significantly inflated due to the involvement of respondents from outside the constituency – but even to the extent that it’s based on interviews inside the constituency, a lot of those people may not know or may have forgotten that Angus MacNeil is no longer the SNP candidate.

Given the importance of the personal vote in the Western Isles, it’s actually pretty likely that Mr MacNeil will be the leading pro-independence candidate at the election and will thus be the only person with any chance of stopping Labour. But if the SNP insist on standing, they’re bound to attract non-trivial support too. If we assume the pro-independence vote in the constituency is around 45%, and if it splits at around 27% for Mr MacNeil, 14% for the SNP, and 4% for the Greens, that’s going to hand the seat on a silver platter to Labour’s Torcuil Crichton, who based on past precedent might then hold the seat for the rest of his life, or until he decides to retire (or until independence if that comes first).

Before it’s too late, the SNP have got to swallow their pride and give Mr MacNeil a free run. They don’t need to actively campaign for him – but just don’t get in his way.