GB-wide voting intentions for general election (Savanta, 9th-11th February 2024):
Labour 41% (-5)
Conservatives 29% (+2)
Liberal Democrats 11% (+1)
Reform UK 8% (-1)
SNP 3% (+1)
Greens 3% (-)
The simple enough answer to the question I posed in the title of this blogpost is that the poll is more likely to be an outlier than anything of huge concern for Starmer, because most recent polls from other firms do not show a similar slump in the Labour lead. However, there is one partial exception – a More In Common poll conducted between the 7th and 11th of this month shows the Labour lead dropping to 11 points. More In Common are on the Tory-friendly end of the spectrum, so such a result is not as significant as it would be from another firm, but nevertheless it’ll be worth keeping an eye on GB-wide polls in the coming days to see if this might be the start of a new trend.
One thing I do find interesting about the Savanta poll is that Reform UK have more than twice the support of the Greens, which is very different from the pattern shown by many polls. It points to a theoretical path towards a more telling Tory recovery, because if the Tories prove able to squeeze the Reform UK vote as polling day approaches, Labour wouldn’t be able to offset that by squeezing the Green vote.
* * *
Before we finish, a reminder that the Scot Goes Pop opinion poll fundraiser urgently needs a boost – let’s not leave it in limbo for months. It’s important that not all Scottish opinion polling is commissioned by anti-independence clients – we need to make sure that occasionally questions are asked that Yes supporters want asked. Donations can be made via the fundraiser page HERE.
However if you have a Paypal account the best way to donate is via direct Paypal payment, because that can totally eliminate fees depending on which option you select, and payment usually comes through instantly. My Paypal email address is:
jkellysta@yahoo.co.uk
