When I was looking for the data tables of Survation’s new Scottish poll a couple of days ago, I stumbled across something really interesting. Plaid Cymru have commissioned two constituency-level polls from Survation which shows themselves on course to win two tough and competitive seats at the general election.
Ynys Môn:
Plaid Cymru 39%
Labour 27%
Conservatives 26%
Reform UK 4%
Liberal Democrats 1%
Carmarthen:
Plaid Cymru 30%
Conservatives 24%
Labour 24%
Independent – Edwards 10%
Reform UK 4%
Liberal Democrats 4%
The Ynys Môn figures seem almost too good to be true, because at Westminster level Plaid Cymru haven’t held the constituency since 2001. It was Labour held between 2001 and 2019, and it’s been Tory since 2019. You’d think with the current Labour surge that it would be Labour’s for the taking, but the poll almost seems to depict a parallel world in which the Tories are proving resilient enough to conveniently split the non-Plaid vote right down the middle.
In Carmarthen, it looks from the list of candidates that Plaid face the particular problem of the man who was elected as their MP in 2019 standing against them this time as an independent. So, again, it would be remarkable if the Labour/Tory vote conveniently split in such an even way that Plaid were still able to win. Constituency polling has a track record of being less reliable than national polling, so perhaps we should be a bit sceptical about the above numbers, but on the face of it they’re very encouraging.
* * *
Before we finish, a reminder that the Scot Goes Pop opinion poll fundraiser urgently needs a boost – let’s not leave it in limbo for months. It’s important that not all Scottish opinion polling is commissioned by anti-independence clients – we need to make sure that occasionally questions are asked that Yes supporters want asked. Donations can be made via the fundraiser page HERE.
However if you have a Paypal account the best way to donate is via direct Paypal payment, because that can totally eliminate fees depending on which option you select, and payment usually comes through instantly. My Paypal email address is:
jkellysta@yahoo.co.uk
