The evidence is now beginning to suggest that the SNP did not get away with their Rutherglen defeat, and at least in the short-term it was never particularly likely that they would. In terms of seats, at least, they are clearly heading for defeat next year, and it seems likely that only drastic action will avert that outcome. Perversely, though, the SNP leadership are in steady as she goes mode.
Scottish voting intentions for the next UK general election (YouGov / Scottish Election Study, 20th-25th October 2023):
Labour 38%
SNP 32%
Conservatives 16%
Liberal Democrats 5%
Greens 4%
Scottish voting intentions for the next UK general election (Redfield & Wilton, 29th-30th October 2023):
SNP 32% (-2)
Labour 32% (-)
Conservatives 23% (+2)
Liberal Democrats 8% (-1)
Greens 2% (-)
I haven’t included percentage changes for the YouGov poll, because on past form the Scottish Election Study’s involvement will probably be claimed as meaning that it doesn’t technically count as an official YouGov poll.
Someone attempted to post a comment on this blog the other day claiming that Humza Yousaf is now “the most popular politician in Britain”. I didn’t publish it because I assumed it was disinformation, albeit of the wishful thinking variety – it must be tempting for Yousaf’s supporters to assume that their admiration of his handling of the situation in Gaza is bound to be shared by the wider public and must have transformed his image entirely. The truth seems to be somewhere in the middle – Redfield & Wilton show his net personal ratings improving to their highest level so far, but he’s still in negative territory at -4. That puts him fifteen points behind Keir Starmer. So, no, I’m afraid he’s nothing like the most popular politician in Britain, even if Starmer plainly does not deserve to be ahead of him.
That said, it’s obviously harder to make the case that Yousaf is the SNP’s biggest problem (even though ultimately he is) when he’s had something of a bounce. It’s a nightmare combination, really – the polling simultaneously shows why the SNP can’t just carry on as they are while giving them a ready-made excuse to do just that.
