As I pointed out both before and after the Rutherglen by-election, the problem with any Labour victory was not what it would show us about public opinion, but the effect it would have on public opinion. What happened was the nightmare scenario because the swing was far greater than expected and gave both the Scottish and London media the excuse they were dreaming of to paint the result as being of biblical significance. There was a real danger that the early polling after Rutherglen would show a snowball effect with Labour pulling away into a big lead. That hasn’t happened, at least not in the first poll, although the big caveat is that fieldwork opened on the day after the by-election, so although most respondents would have heard about the result, the hysteria of the reporting might not have had its full effect by that point.
Scottish voting intentions for the next UK general election (Savanta, 6th-11th October 2023):
SNP 35% (-3)
Labour 35% (+1)
Conservatives 19% (+2)
Liberal Democrats 6% (-1)
Seats projection (with changes from 2019 election): Labour 27 (+26), SNP 20 (-28), Conservatives 7 (+1), Liberal Democrats 5 (+1)
Scottish Parliament constituency ballot:
SNP 37% (-3)
Labour 33% (-)
Conservatives 18% (+2)
Liberal Democrats 6% (-2)
Scottish Parliament regional list ballot:
Labour 29% (+1)
SNP 28% (-)
Conservatives 20% (+2)
Greens 13% (-)
Liberal Democrats 8% (-3)
Seats projection: SNP 42 (-22), Labour 39 (+17), Conservatives 24 (-7), Greens 16 (+8), Liberal Democrats 8 (+4)
My view remains that the SNP are in all sorts of trouble as far as the Westminster election is concerned, and that a poll like this may even exacerbate the problem by encouraging a “you know, we’re not doing too badly in the circumstances, are we?” mindset, when in fact they really need to be taking drastic action to turn things around. However, as far as Holyrood is concerned, it probably is fair to suggest that Sarwar’s fan club may have got over-excited about the significance of Rutherglen.
And they certainly got over-excited about their belief that Scots were turning their backs on independence in favour of “real change” (a phrase that curiously seems to mean continued right-wing rule from London, ie. no change at all).
Should Scotland be an independent country?
Yes 49% (-)
No 51% (-)
We’re seeing a continued decoupling between the SNP and the Yes vote, which means by definition that a huge number of current Labour supporters actively support independence (excluding likely abstainers, roughly one-third of Labour voters in this poll would vote Yes). That may not make for the most stable of long-term relationships.
* * *
If you’re a member of the Alba Party, and haven’t yet voted in the party’s internal elections, I’d be grateful if you’d consider giving me your first preference for Membership Support Convener. The email link to vote should be in your inbox from last Friday.
Related
