I wanted to wait until I had a chance to read through the full text of the SNP’s new “strategy for winning independence” before passing comment. Well, where to start. Maybe with the sole positive part: Yousaf has not reversed his dramatic announcement from a few months ago that the first line of the SNP’s election manifesto will state that a vote for the SNP is a vote for an independent Scotland. That’s important, because whatever the SNP’s own views on whether the election is a de facto independence referendum, it at least gives voters the theoretical opportunity to use it as one. They had no such opportunity in 2019 because the manifesto did not contain that language (which is why people are mistaken in thinking the SNP are asking for a mandate they already have and are not using).
When Yousaf became leader, I noted that it meant the SNP had ceased to be a party actively seeking to win independence for the first time since at least 1942. His announcement about the content of the first line of the manifesto (which he was almost certainly forced into by circumstance) caused me to tentatively reverse that assessment, and I suppose because that now forms part of the finalised “strategy”, I must concede that the SNP do remain an actively pro-independence party. But it’s a finely-balanced call, because almost everything else in the text seems designed to undermine the meaning and clarity of the manifesto’s opening words.
How do you signal to voters, the UK Government and the international community that an SNP vote is not really a vote for independence, even though you say it is? Well, how about by going on to say that a vote for the SNP is actually a vote for certain limited powers to be devolved, which would obviously be unnecessary and impossible if Scotland is already independent. Or how about by saying that you want the power to hold a referendum transferred to Holyrood, which would be unnecessary if Scotland has already voted for independence in a meaningful way. Or how about by dropping in the subtext that even if you get the power to hold a referendum, you might not use it any time soon, thus implying the 2024 manifesto is even less of an urgent attempt to win independence than its 2019 counterpart. Or how about by suggesting that if no progress is made as a result of an SNP victory, you might then give ‘consideration’ to using the 2026 Holyrood election as a de facto referendum, with the implication that – in spite of all appearances – the wording of the manifesto cannot really be construed as making the 2024 election a de facto referendum even if voters wish to use it as one.
That word “consideration” is the most snivelling part of the whole exercise, because at least if there had been a clear statement of intent to use 2026 as the de facto, we’d have a roadmap towards independence. As it is, we instead have the very real prospect of continuing with election after election of just kicking the can a bit further down the road.
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