The people of Scotland SUPPORT using the next general election as a de facto independence referendum, reveals sensational new Ipsos poll – as Daily Record cynically misrepresent the numbers

My eye was caught earlier by a tweet from the rabidly pro-London-rule Paul Hutcheon, Political Editor of the ever-contemptible Daily Record.  He claimed that an “independence poll” had found that “less than 40%” of the public support Nicola Sturgeon’s plan of a plebiscite election in the event that the Supreme Court rules that the Scottish Parliament cannot unilaterally hold a referendum.  This of course is intended to give the impression that “more than 60%” oppose a plebiscite election – but they don’t.  The poll actually shows that 38% of the public do not agree that a majority for pro-independence parties at the general election would constitute a legitimate mandate for independence, compared with 39% who do agree.  The remainder of the sample said they didn’t know or had no strong views.

Or, to put it another way, a plurality of the Scottish public, and a clear majority with Don’t Knows stripped out, support the principle of a plebiscite election – the total opposite of the impression given by the piece in the Record.  To be sure, it’s a tight result, but if it had gone the other way it seems phenomenally improbable that the Record would have been saying “less than 40% oppose Nicola Sturgeon’s plan, in staggering blow to unionist parties”.  It would simply have been reported that a plurality was opposed.

We’ve actually had a succession of good news stories from the polls recently.  The Ipsos poll shows that the public feel that a positive result from either a plebiscite election or a referendum held without Westminster’s permission would constitute a mandate for independence.  The Panelbase poll found that respondents want a referendum within the next five years, and think the decision should be made by the Scottish Government, not the UK Government.

You have to wonder where the Record is heading under the reckless direction of Hutcheon.  In spite of the notoriety of The Vow back in 2014, they were very careful not to explicitly back a No vote because they knew that would alienate a massive proportion of their own readers.  If Hutcheon thinks for some reason he’s on firmer ground in adopting an outright anti-independence posture this time, he’s catastrophically “misreading the room”, to use one of his own favourite phrases.

Incidentally, I see that Ipsos-Mori have now been rebranded as Ipsos UK, which is a bit of a shame given the long history of the Mori brand in British political polling.  But on the plus side, at least this is the end of the road for the tiresome troll who for years has ranted at me every time I decline to put the word Mori in capitals. 

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Alba NEC nominations update: A huge thanks to all the Alba members who have got in touch over the last few days to nominate me for the upcoming election to the party’s NEC.  I was very pleasantly surprised by the numbers – there was more than double the ten nominations required.  I submitted my nomination form earlier today, so we’ll see what happens.  

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SNP leadership: “Our vermin supporters must stop attacking BBC journalism, which is the envy of the world and beyond reproach, and…and…and…we wholly agree with Emily Maitlis that the BBC are in collusion with the Tory party.”

Seems OK when an establishment figure says it.

— James Kelly (@JamesKelly) August 25, 2022

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