Perhaps nothing speaks volumes about the SNP’s failure to start a suitably intensive campaign for a referendum / plebiscite election quite like the recent dearth of independence polling. There’s been a wait of the best part of two months since the famous Panelbase poll that unexpectedly showed Yes back in the lead. OK, it’s summer, but clearly the media don’t think anything of note is happening – although in fairness they’d probably be pretending nothing was happening anyway, because they’re largely unionists and are perfectly capable of weaving their own fictional reality.
Many thanks to Marcia for alerting me to the fact that the drought has finally been broken – and, once again, it’s a Panelbase poll. On the face it, the headline numbers look mildly disappointing, because the modest Yes lead has been replaced by a modest No lead. However, you have to bear in mind that the Yes lead was very unusual by recent Panelbase standards, and the new Yes figure is thus still on the high side, relatively speaking. The changes are also small, within the margin of error, and continue to leave us with a ‘statistical tie’.
Should Scotland be an independent country? (Panelbase / Sunday Times)
Curiously, the headlines generated from this poll have been less about the headline numbers, and more about the hypothetical numbers in the highly likely event that Liz Truss becomes Prime Minister next month. Yes would supposedly move into a 52-48 lead in that scenario. As is always pointed out, results from hypothetical questions have very little credibility – we’ve seen that in the past with results predicting there would be a decisive swing to Yes if Brexit occurred, or if a particularly Hard Brexit occurred, or if Boris Johnson became Prime Minister. The problem is that by asking how people would vote in an indyref, and then asking how they would vote in an indyref if Truss is PM, you’re drawing attention to the Truss Factor and implying it’s the sort of thing that could change people’s votes, which might in itself be enough to nudge certain respondents in a particular direction. It’s worth noting that the hypothetical question about Sunak being PM also shows a lower No vote – which makes no sense, because voters should already be factoring in the certainty that either Truss or Sunak will shortly be in Number 10.
Nevertheless, the poll is still extremely valuable because it helpfully feeds the narrative that a Truss premiership will be a gift for the pro-independence campaign (as indeed it probably will be in the long run).
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