Scottish voting intentions for Westminster (Panelbase):
SNP 38% (n/c)
Labour 19% (-2)
Conservatives 18% (-4)
Liberal Democrats 10% (+4)
Brexit Party 9% (+4)
Greens 3% (+1)
Change UK 2% (-1)
UKIP 1% (-1)
Panelbase have consistently reported a lower SNP share than other firms, so I would guess a new poll from YouGov or Survation might show the SNP in the low 40s. But even if Panelbase are correct, what’s happening is that Labour and the Tories are taking a hammering from the polarisation of politics along Remain v Leave lines, while the SNP are holding steady at roughly where they were at the last general election. And when the voting system is first-past-the-post, that’s all they need to do. On the Electoral Calculus projection, they’d win almost every seat in Scotland, with the Tories being completely wiped out and Labour reduced to just Ian Murray’s seat once again. In practice, that’s unlikely to be how it unfolds – I suspect David Mundell and John Lamont might hold on for the Tories, along with maybe one or two others. But the bulk of the seats the Tories took in the north-east two years ago would probably tumble. That’s remarkable, because those seats looked absolutely rock-solid until a few short weeks ago.
More details and analysis to follow…
