Extremist anti-independence propaganda organisation “Scotland in Union” have released their latest Survation poll, and not for the first time it’s backfired on them spectacularly by suggesting that the SNP are set to make significant gains from the unionist parties in any snap general election. What’s new, though, is that it also shows the Tories returning to their once-familiar third place – and given the current seepage of Tory votes to the Brexit Party and elsewhere, it would be a brave person who predicts that they won’t be staying there.
Scottish voting intentions for Westminster (Survation):
SNP 41% (+1)
Labour 24% (+1)
Conservatives 22% (-2)
Liberal Democrats 8% (n/c)
As with any “Scotland in Union” poll, the independence figures can be safely ignored because a non-standard question was used to get the desired result (although of course that won’t stop the unionist media breathlessly reporting them as if they actually mean something). We’ve known for many years that asking poll respondents whether they want to “remain in the United Kingdom” produces more favourable results for the anti-independence cause than the standard question. Why that would be the case is anyone’s guess – I sometimes wonder if there’s a degree of confusion about what the ‘United Kingdom’ actually is, and if some respondents might wrongly assume they’re being asked whether they want to retain the monarchy. But it’s not worth worrying about, because we know from the experience of the 2014 referendum that standard independence polling is more accurate than these ‘alternative’ polls. The most recent standard polling continued to show Yes in the mid-40s or higher.
(And as I always point out, any poll that asks about ‘leaving the UK’ should not technically be considered an independence poll at all, because it’s perfectly possible to leave the UK without becoming independent. We could leave the UK to become a crown dependency, or a freely associated state, or we could become part of another country.)
More details and analysis to follow shortly…
